The East: The New England area welcomed beneficial precipitation last week (0.5 to 1 inch or more) as a storm swept across New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Things are still very dry, however, and impacts continue to be felt as wells and streams continue to lag in their recovery. Although the recent wetness has helped, it has only served to stave off the deteriorating conditions found throughout the region. Consequently, the drought depiction on the map remains virtually unchanged in this region.

A little farther south in the Mid-Atlantic, things have again started to worsen after a recent brief reprieve. Moderate (D1) and severe (D2) drought conditions have again expanded north and west out of Virginia and into Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. A drought emergency was announced this week for several counties in southern and eastern Pennsylvania, while counties in southeastern New York and western New Jersey are under a drought warning. Unfortunately, high pressure has been pushing recent storms either just to the south or to the north of this region.

The Southeast: A strong winter storm passed through the South and Southeast early last week, bringing with it snow and rain. In general, 1 to 2 inches or more fell across Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Although this has been welcome in the moderate (D1), severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought-affected areas, it is by no means a signal that the region has rid itself of the drought. Even after the recent rains, long-term and short-term deficits remain in Georgia and the Carolinas, with amounts running 2 to 4 inches below normal during the winter months alone. In addition, long-term impacts are still being felt after 4 years of drought in the region. Parts of Georgia, northern Florida and South Carolina have seen deficits on the order of 6 to 9 inches over the October 1, 2001, to February 11, 2002, time period.

The Plains and Midwest: Another strong storm swept through the Plains and up into the Great Lakes, but the heavy snow didn’t really materialize in the drought-affected areas. The story was the wind and the speed at which it passed through. Concerns about the effects of this winter’s wind and dryness on the winter wheat is warranted given the general lack of snow cover from both a moisture and protection standpoint.

After heavy rains the week before, parts of southern Oklahoma and western and northern Texas saw the recent wet trend continue last week. In general, drought conditions continue to improve in the region and, as a result, these areas have seen a reduction in both the intensity and spatial extent of the drought.

Conditions continue to worsen with each passing week this winter in parts of western Nebraska, the Dakotas and Minnesota. Last week’s storm brought a lot of wind but not much snow, leaving most areas of these states high and dry. Moderate (D1) drought has now expanded through the Nebraska Panhandle and into the southwestern part of the state. Abnormally (D0) dry conditions retreated a little in southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska where precipitation amounts were more favorable. At the same time, abnormally (D0) dry conditions have now expanded to cover all of North Dakota.

The West: In the West, the “rich got richer and the poor got poorer” as all but the Pacific NW saw another dry week. High Santa Ana winds over the weekend and an abnormally dry winter wet season have led to heightened concerns of fire in southern California and the Desert Southwest. Snowpacks are very low and continue to fall near or below 50% of average over a great deal of the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest basins. Accompanying the low snowpack are lagging snow water equivalent values and precipitation amounts. Since October 1, 2001, virtually all of Arizona and southern California have seen less than half of their normal precipitation (or more), with deficits generally running on the order of 2 to 6 inches. As a result, abnormally (D0) dry conditions continue to expand in Arizona and southern California while Arizona has also seen moderate (D1) drought conditions creep into the northern reaches of the state. Better news is to be had in the north, where the continued storm track through the Pacific NW has led to an improvement in eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, where a retreat of the abnormally (D0) dry and moderate (D1) drought areas is now evident. Snowpack, snow water equivalent and streamflow forecasts are showing above-normal levels across the board in this area.

Hawaii and Puerto Rico: A quiet week followed the generous rains of the past few weeks in Hawaii with the moderate (D1 W) drought there being more of a long-term water supply issue for future user/producer demands, rather than a direct short-term dryness impact on agriculture. This led to a shift from A (agricultural) to a W (hydrological) label on the island of Molokai. There are no changes to Puerto Rico this week.

Looking Ahead: Weather features to watch in the next 2 weeks that may affect areas experiencing dryness include: 1) high pressure should dominate the weather picture across most of the country through the weekend and into early next week, leading to above-normal temperatures (especially in the northern Plains) and little in the way of precipitation in all but the Pacific NW and parts of the Southeast (FL and GA), where cooler temperatures and rains/snow are expected; 2) looking out past the next 5 days shows a general trend toward above-normal precipitation across the northern half of the country along with above-normal temperatures; 3) expect cooler and wetter conditions to prevail over the Pacific NW over the next week or so, and the Rio Grande basin should see better odds of below-normal precipitation over the same time frame; 4) ridging should keep Hawaii pretty quiet and dry for the most part over the next week or so.