The East: Moderate precipitation fell on parts of upstate New York and northern New England while light amounts fell on the Northeast, southern Appalachians, central North Carolina, the Georgia and South Carolina Piedmont, and the western slopes and foothills of the Appalachians. Little or none fell elsewhere. As a result, dryness and drought remained unchanged in the Northeast, and expanded or intensified in parts of the mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and the central and southern Appalachians. D3 conditions were extended to cover central North Carolina, the Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Neck, eastern West Virginia, and the entire Delmarva Peninsula while D0 to D2 conditions made new forays into parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, north Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida. In addition, the approach of the growing season and above-normal temperatures prompted the removal of the (W) designation from the mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Carolinas. Precipitation totals for the last 30 days were 2 to 4 inches below normal from southern Virginia and central Kentucky southward through western South Carolina, northern Georgia, and Alabama while 90-day totals 4 to 8 inches below normal were measured in southern New England, the lower Northeast, the mid-Atlantic, and portions of central South Carolina, southwestern Georgia, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Relative to historic data from the National Climatic Data Center, September 2001 through February 2002 was the driest of any 6-month period in 107 years of records for the states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia.

The Plains and Midwest: Light to moderate precipitation led to some D0 reduction in central Minnesota and some adjacent areas, but little or no precipitation was observed through most of the Plains, except in some parts of east-central sections and the northern tier. Consequently, D0 expanded eastward to cover central Texas and central Nebraska, and D1 or D2 conditions were introduced in the southern Rio Grande Valley, parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent Kansas, and portions of eastern Wyoming and adjacent areas. During the last 30 days, less than 25% of normal precipitation fell on central and southeastern South Dakota, southwestern Kansas, the western halves of Oklahoma and Texas, southeastern Colorado, and eastern New Mexico. The National Interagency Fire Center highlighted areas from southern South Dakota southward through central Texas and the southern High Plains as having “high” or “very high” fire danger on March 12, with some “extreme” fire danger identified in parts of eastern New Mexico and the Big Bend.

The West: Beneficial precipitation led to a continued gradual reduction of drought conditions in the northern and western tiers of the region while dryness intensified in the southern half of this region. Most notably, much of northeast Oregon and interior western Idaho improved to D0(W), and some of the western fringes of D1(W) to D3 conditions in western Montana and northwestern Wyoming also improved by a category.

For the most part, sufficient snowpack exists across northern and western parts of the region to allow for adequate water supplies and streamflows during the forthcoming spring and summer months, but some of these areas remain entrenched in long-term precipitation deficits. Two- to three-year totals through February 2002 were among the lowest in 107 years of record in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho despite the current presence of near- or above-normal snow water content. Farther south, longer-term conditions are better, but autumn and winter warmth and dryness has kept mountain snowpack well below normal and raised some concern about conditions during the forthcoming spring and summer, though water supplies should be adequate in most places.

Rapidly increasing fire danger and continued well-below-normal precipitation led to D1(F) expansion through much of Arizona, southern Nevada, and southeastern California while D2 and D2(W) conditions pushed into much of central and southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and southern Utah. Currently, local and national managers are particularly concerned about fire danger for the next couple of weeks and months in New Mexico, Arizona, and adjacent areas where moisture in potential wildfire fuel (trees, shrubs, grasses, etc.) is exceptionally low.

Much farther north, a warm, dry autumn and winter led to the introduction of D0 into interior sections of the southeastern quarter of Alaska. Snowpack in this region on March 1 was between 50% and 70% of normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and much of the valleys recorded less than half of normal October - February precipitation, according to the River Forecast Centers.

Hawaii and Puerto Rico: D1 drought continued in western Molokai and D0 dryness remained in southern Puerto Rico. Both areas were somewhat drier than normal again last week.

Looking Ahead: Rainfall March 12 - 13 in the East should prove beneficial, but not nearly sufficient for any significant relief in most places. The heaviest rains are likely in parts of the Carolinas and adjacent Georgia.

Forecast conditions that may affect areas of dryness and drought during March 14 - 18 include beneficial precipitation (1-2 inches) from central Maine westward through northeastern New York, but near- or below-normal totals in other dry areas of the East. Little or none is forecast for much of the Carolinas, Georgia, central Florida, and southeastern Alabama. The entire East Coast should average warmer than normal this period. Farther west, 5-day totals of 1-2 inches are expected in a swath from the eastern parts of South Dakota and Nebraska eastward to the Mississippi River. Light to moderate amounts are anticipated near this areas, and in parts of the central High Plains and Rockies, the northern Intermountain West, Utah, and western Nevada. Farther south and east, little or no precipitation should fall on the southern, southern parts of the Four Corners states, and the desert Southwest. Above-normal temperatures are expected to accompany this dryness in Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico.

For the ensuing 5 days (March 19 - 23), the odds favor heavier than normal precipitation from New York southward to southern Alabama and Georgia. Above-normal totals also appear likely in the desert Southwest. Meanwhile, dryness is favored in northern sections of the High Plains and Rockies, the Northwest, the southern High Plains, and parts of Texas. Temperatures should average above normal from the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee southward through Florida while cool conditions are favored for the upper Midwest, the central and northern Plains, and from the Rockies westward to the West Coast.