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August 27, 2002 US Drought Monitor

For more information on the above experimental drought blends, see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/experimental/edb/droughtblend-access-page.html#exp.
The drought indicators that are synthesized into the Drought Monitor map are on this website, under Forecasts and Current Conditions.
This summary map is based on a multi-index drought classification scheme.
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North American Drought Monitor



National Drought Summary -- August 27, 2002

Note: For more information on the national drought picture, please link to a special report entitled “Drought Overview.”

The West and Alaska: It was mostly dry across the interior Southwest to the west coast this week. Several wildfires continued to burn in parts of the West, with very low soil moisture and streamflow. Cattle auctions in Utah continued at a pace 500% of normal for this time of year as herds were sold off because of the lack of grazing and the high cost of hay. August month-to-date rainfall ranged from 0 to 30 percent of normal across much of Utah and Nevada, where D2 and the southern D3 boundaries expanded westward. Scattered showers brought a few tenths of an inch of rain to the Northwest with half an inch to an inch in a few places. Locally heavy rains in central Montana resulted in a slight shrinkage of the D2 and D3 boundaries.

Across Alaska, rainfall amounts that were about twice the weekly normal over Juneau, plus the absence of large fires in the region, led to the removal of D0 along the Alexander Archipelago in the southeast.

The Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes: A second week of heavy thunderstorms brought continued one-category reduction to the drought classification across extreme southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. Heavy thunderstorm rains brought drought relief and improving conditions from central to northwest Kansas, with erosion of the D4 boundary in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms in the Nebraska panhandle and southwest South Dakota resulted in a slight contraction of the D4 boundary, and rains in south central South Dakota resulted in a slight contraction of the drought boundaries there. Meanwhile, the level of Lake McConaughy in southwest Nebraska continued to drop, reaching 16 feet above the all-time record low set in the mid 1950s, with the lake at 34 percent of capacity. Subnormal rainfall, drying soil moisture conditions, soybean stress, and deteriorating pasture conditions prompted the addition of an island of D0 in east central Kansas and west central Missouri.

Heavy cold frontal showers and thunderstorms continued for a second week, chasing D0 out of northern Illinois and northern Indiana and bringing drought relief to southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. Heavy rains in western Tennessee and northeast Arkansas beat back D0 there. But D1 bridged the gap in eastern Kentucky as another week of little rainfall further dried soils.

The Gulf Coast: Beneficial rains in southern Louisiana chopped the southern end of D0 in the state, but subnormal rainfall and drying soil moisture conditions prompted the expansion of D0 into northeast Texas.

The East: Drought-easing rains shrank D0 in western and central Pennsylvania and central New York, and slightly contracted the D1 and D2 boundaries in southeast Pennsylvania. But continued dryness and worsening soil moisture conditions in New England prompted an expansion of D0 into northern New Hampshire and D1 across most of Maine, where pasture conditions plummeted to 67 percent poor to very poor. Heavy thunderstorms from an upper low and associated cold front drenched much of eastern North Carolina and coastal South Carolina, bringing a one-category improvement to the drought classification there. Heavy localized rains near the Georgia-North Carolina-South Carolina state line dimpled the D3 and D4 boundaries there. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and parts of southern Georgia brought local relief but were not widespread enough to improve the drought classification.

Hawaii: No changes were made in the areas affected by D0 in Hawaii, which received little to no precipitation this past week.

Puerto Rico: Little change was made to the drought depiction in Puerto Rico. Locally 2 to 5 inch rains in the west central highlands carved out a bit of the D0. Longer term dryness persisted to the north and east where D0 was maintained.

Looking Ahead: The frontal system which brought much needed precipitation to parts of the Carolinas last week (August 24-26) should continue to move slowly up the eastern seaboard and provide potentially significant rainfall along the coast from the Carolinas up to New England. During the period August 29- September 1, expect cooler than normal temperatures along the East Coast, in association with the rain and cloud cover from the frontal system. The combination of clouds and cooler temperatures should allow the drought-stricken soil in these areas to better absorb the rainfall, potentially easing drought impacts. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the Southwest with little or no precipitation forecast, which will most likely exacerbate drought conditions there. Scattered showers are expected during this period across parts of the D0 areas in Alaska, possibly easing the dryness, and across parts of the Great Plains.

In the 6-10 day period (September 3-7), expect above normal temperatures across a large swath of the U.S. from the interior portions of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. Precipitation is anticipated to be above normal across parts of the Southeast, the Great Lakes and the Pacific Northwest. Expect above normal precipitation across the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands as strong Easterlies are expected to prevail across the region.


Author: Richard Heim/Karin Gleason, National Climatic Data Center