Northeast and Mid Atlantic: The upper New England area saw another week of below-normal temperatures and little in the way of rainfall, leaving the picture unchanged from last week with most of the dryness contained in Maine and the New Hampshire panhandle.

In the Mid Atlantic, the cooler temperatures were coupled with beneficial rains, mostly in the D.C. area and the western reaches of Maryland and Virginia. Conditions continue to improve here as the areas of abnormally dry (D0), moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) continue to shrink in the Carolinas. Severe drought has been removed altogether from Virginia. Streamflows and reservoirs continue their improvement as a result, and groundwater will lag behind them.

Southeast, and Puerto Rico: All but Florida saw normal or cooler daytime readings last week. Good rains of 2-4 inches or more were reported in parts of Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas.

The western edge of the drought in the Southeast continues to nudge eastward as a result, with abnormally dry (D0) conditions now being eliminated from eastern Tennessee and severe drought (D2) being pushed northward out of Georgia for the first time since October 2001. The drought corridor (from Georgia up to Virginia) of D1/D2 conditions has been reduced on both the east and west sides as a result of above-normal rains over the past 30-90 days. Streamflows, reservoir levels and groundwater levels are beginning to follow suit after a very good fall as many places in Tennessee, Georgia and the Carolinas have seen 150% of normal rainfall since October 1.

Lingering year-to-date deficits and a recent dry six-week period have led to the introduction of abnormally dry (D0) conditions into extreme southeast Florida. Rainfall in this part of Florida has been running at half of normal over that time period. Most concerns now are focused on the high fire risk.

Puerto Rico continues to see drier than normal conditions, which has led to low streamflows on parts of the island. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions have spread northward as a result.

The Ohio Valley and Great Lakes: Deadly storms brought heavy rains to parts of Indiana and Ohio last week. Michigan also saw some decent rains on the lower west side. This has led to a slight retreat of moderate drought (D1) and abnormally dry conditions here. Most of the heavier rains stayed south of the core dry areas in this region.

The Plains and the West: The first major storm of the season battered the West last week, dumping several feet of snow in the higher elevations of the Sierra-Cascades (hello ski season) and bringing much needed rainfall to the coastal and valley areas. The northern two-thirds of California and coastal areas in the Pacific NW saw amounts of 2-8 inches or more (liquid equivalent) from Santa Barbara up to Eureka and then up into Oregon and Washington.

Across most of the West, the A/F designation has been changed to “W” to signal continuing hydrological dryness that plagues the region. The recent bouts of storms were very beneficial, but longer-term dryness is still lingering as both year-to-date departures and deficits accrued during the past 365 days can’t be ignored. The Los Angeles area received around 2.5” of rain from this storm (the first good rains since January) but they are still down -8.5” (31% of normal) on the year. San Diego didn’t share in the moisture that fell to the north and has only received 2.13” of rain on the year (25% of normal). An area of A/F still remains in extreme southern California and western Arizona. Farther north, San Francisco recorded nearly 3”, but they are still seeing a -6.85” deficit (56%) for the year. The rains this past weekend also broke Sacramento's third longest recorded dry spell (167 days).

In general, the advance of drought into the region was pushed back to points east and north as northern California, western Oregon and northern Nevada benefitted the most from these systems. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions have been pushed off of the extreme coastal areas and the moderate (D1) and severe (D2) drought areas have receded back into eastern Oregon, southern Idaho and southwestern Nevada.

In the Pacific NW, rain and snow was most abundant on the western sides of Oregon and Washington, with northwestern Washington and the Idaho panhandle also sharing in some good moisture. The drought picture has changed somewhat there, with areas of moderate drought (D1) retreating to the southeast back into the Idaho panhandle. The situation remains unchanged on the eastern side of the Bitterroot Range as the weather has again turned dry in western Montana.

While these storms injected much needed moisture into the region, they were not enough to eradicate the dryness/drought in all areas. Totals are still lagging in many places and this wet trend must continue in order to rid the region of this enduring drought.

Hawaii: The situation in Hawaii remains unchanged from last week, with moderate hydrological drought (D1 W) being confined to the western parts of Molokai.

Looking Ahead: Weather features to watch in the next 10-day period through November 23 that may affect areas experiencing dryness or drought include: Over the next 5 days (November 14-18): 1) warmer temperatures are expected in the West while the eastern half of the country can expect much more in the way of cooler temperatures into early next week; 2) heavy rains are expected in both the Pacific NW and the eastern seaboard into early next week, with totals expected to exceed 2” or more in the coastal areas of Oregon and especially in the Olympic and northern Cascade ranges as well as northeastern Washington and northern Idaho along the northern Bitterroot Range; 3) strong winds, heavy rains, and good snows in the Appalachians are expected to encroach on the Mid Atlantic this weekend, with 2-3” or more likely from southern Virginia up into New England. South Florida should also see some beneficial rains as well.

For the 6-10 day period (November 19-23): 1) all but the Southeast are expected to see warmer than normal temperatures as high pressure builds in across most of the country; 2) the ridging (high pressure) should also lead to below-normal precipitation in all but the extreme Pacific NW and extreme Northeast over this period.