The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The South: Hurricane Rita came onshore near the Texas-Louisiana border early on September 24. She deluged areas from east Texas through central and southern Louisiana with 6 inches or more of rain and left over 4 inches on much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The drenching rains ended dryness from eastern Texas through nearly all of Louisiana and most of Arkansas. Due to lingering long-term rainfall deficits, some D0 areas persisted in western and northern Arkansas. Hot, dry weather away from Rita’s influence caused some westward expansion of the severe D2 drought in northern Texas and northeastward expansion of the D1 drought in southern Texas.

The East: Rita’s remains enhanced frontal showers that swept through the East on September 26, but amounts were modest, and the moisture did little to improve the areas experiencing dryness and drought. Continued high temperatures added to the impact of the persistent scanty rainfalls seen this month, so D1 drought expanded slightly in northern West Virginia, southern Pennsylvania, central Virginia, and southern North Carolina. D1 expanded southward into extreme northern South Carolina and expanded northward from E Kentucky into extreme southern Ohio. D1 drought persisted across the mid-Atlantic region and edged northward in western Connecticut into Massachusetts. Rains associated with Hurricane Rita contributed to rainfall across western Florida, resulting in reduction of the southern portion of the D0 area, but high fire danger indices along with low soil moisture and streamflows led to expansion of D0 northward into northwestern areas of the peninsula.

The Midwest and Plains: A couple of bouts of heavy showers affected the region this week, with 7-day rainfall totals during September 21-27 of 3 to 4 inches or more easing dryness in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and southeastern Wisconsin. One to two category improvements resulted, although amounts were not enough to affect the severe drought in northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Despite up to 4 inches of rain in southeast Wisconsin, locations south of Milwaukee still posted rainfall deficits of nearly 1 foot since March 1, qualifying the area as D2 drought. The heaviest rains largely missed the D3 drought area in northern Illinois, and low rainfall amounts resulted in some expansion of D3 in eastern Iowa and D1 in southwestern Iowa. Heavy rains exceeding 2 inches led to removal of D0 to D1 dryness in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Dry weather the last 3 weeks and low streamflows led to a southward expansion of D0H into west-central Kansas.

The West: Unusually heavy rains of 1 inch or more resulted in lessening of D2 drought in northwestern Wyoming, while lighter rains contributed to slight retreat of the D2 area in northeast Wyoming. Another dry week led to westward expansion of D1 drought in northwestern Washington.

Alaska and Hawaii: Additional showers this week in Hawaii led to reduction of D0 in Kauai, Oahu, and the Big Island, while rains trimmed the southern portion of the D0 in Alaska.

Looking Ahead: Weather features to watch in the next 2 weeks that may affect areas experiencing dryness or drought across the country include: 1) frontal rains moving through the Midwest and Northeast on September 28-29, ushering in colder weather; 2) low pressure bringing showers to the Pacific Northwest through October 3; 3) above-normal rainfall during October 4-8 across the Plains, the Northwest, and the southeast coast, including the Florida peninsula; 4) warm, dry weather from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast during October 4-8; 5) a similar pattern for the week 2 period, with warm and dry from the Ohio Valley to Maine, and wet in the Southeast, Plains, and Northwest.

Updated September 28, 2005