The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic:  The weather pattern remained active on the heels of Ernesto’s exit last week. Good widespread rains of 1 to 4 inches or more were reported across parts of northern Florida, southern and coastal Georgia, and into the Hilton Head region of South Carolina. A 1-category improvement is reflected as a result, with D0 retreating to northern Florida and D1 being pushed north and west in southern Georgia. This favorable pattern has also led to a slow gradual improvement in the hydrologic situation in North Carolina, where D0 has now been improved a bit in the northern basins of the state and D1 has shrunk as well in the extreme western reaches. The recent trend is welcomed considering that much of the region is sitting at only 50-70% of their normal precipitation for the year.

The Mississippi Valley:  Recent heavy rains (2 to 5 inches or more in some places) in northern Mississippi have led to a conservative 1-category improvement from D2 to D1. Longer periods still show extreme deficits and a concern for lingering impacts as we head toward the cool season. To the north, conditions have also improved in northeast Arkansas along with western and northern Tennessee. In Arkansas, the D2 has been adjusted southward in those areas that are above normal now over the past 60 to 90 days as well as on the year. The reduction of D1 across the border to the east in western Tennessee reflects this pattern as well. Improvement is also noted in northern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, and southern Ohio, where the D0 has been eliminated this week. The recent cooler and wetter weather, along with a return to normal streamflows, led to this change.

The Plains and Midwest:  Another week of cool wet weather was welcomed in the central Plains, where much of eastern Nebraska and parts of northern Kansas and Iowa received on the order of 2 to 4 inches. Improvement is noted with a 1-category reduction and a pushing west of the D1 and D2 in central Nebraska. In southeast Nebraska, this has actually led to the removal of D0 as even the longer year-to-date precipitation totals are near to above normal now. In Iowa, the best rains fell to the north and east of the driest areas, but good rains still helped out in central and southwestern regions, leading to the removal of D0. The rains missed southeast Iowa, though, and a slight expansion of D1 is noted there. In extreme northwest Missouri, they also saw good rains and improvement is noted here this week. D0 and D1 have been shifted slightly south.

Persistent dryness has once again led to the expansion of D3 in northern Minnesota along with a southeasterly push of D0 into the Lake Winnebago region in eastern Wisconsin. Low streamflows and depleted soil moisture levels are reason for concern heading into the recharge season.

The southern Plains shared in the cooler weather but weren’t as fortunate as their neighbors to the north in the way of precipitation. Recently, it has been a tug-a-war between short-term wetness and long-term dryness across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. This has resulted in a mixed bag of improvements and deterioration on this week’s map within these states. Some improvement is noted across extreme southwest Kansas and central and northeastern Kansas, where good rains and the cooler temperatures have effectively eroded away the D0 there. In Oklahoma, recent rains have led to short-term improvement in the Panhandle with a general 1-category improvement, which extends back into northwest Oklahoma as well. A larger area of D2 remains in north central Oklahoma and both D3 and D4 have expanded in southern Oklahoma as a result of recent dryness on top of the long-term drought that has plagued the region since last summer. Precipitation on the year is only around half of normal for many locations. In the Texas Panhandle, the improvement continues with a pushing eastward of the D0, D1, and D2. On the other side of the state, dryness has once again led to the slight advancement of D0 into extreme southeastern Texas.

The Rockies, West, and Southwest:  The monsoon just keeps on kicking up rains in the Southwest, while the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies continue to be hot and dry. Fires are abundant and water storage is becoming an issue in parts of the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and in some of the basins in Wyoming. Expansion is noted in both of these states this week with the introduction of D1 into northwest Washington state and with D3 expanding across more of central Wyoming as well. Water issues on the North Platte drainage heading into this water year are also reflected in the westward placement of D0, D1, and D2 in western Wyoming as well. Colorado has been a bit more hit and miss with the monsoon activity, but in general things have improved recently. D2 has been reduced in east-central Colorado while the D1 area has been reduced in central and south-central Colorado joining up with D0 in New Mexico, which has been one of the prime benefactors of this monsoon season. In New Mexico, D1 has been relegated to the north with the removal of D1 in the south. The D0 has also been reduced a great deal across southern New Mexico. To the west in Arizona, good rains in the west and south have led to only minor trimming of drought conditions as the same general pattern of drought is entrenched.

Hawaii:  With the continued dryness across the Islands, impacts are now starting to crop up with regard to water supply and fire issues, particularly in Maui. This has led to an expansion of D0 across all of Maui County along with an introduction of D1 to the leeward side of the island. The other islands remain the same with continued D0 conditions at this time.

Looking Ahead: The next five days (September 14-18) show the potential for a strong system to work its way across the Northern Rockies, Montana, and North Dakota, bringing with it the potential for very beneficial late season moisture. Parts of the Midwest, in places like eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and eastern Iowa, could find themselves under some good rains as well. To the south and east, much of the Atlantic Seaboard is looking at another wet week from Florida up to Virginia. Cooler weather is expected across much of the West, with above-normal readings expected in the Great Lakes region and the Northeast.

For the ensuing 5 days (September 19-23), a tropical storm system brewing in the Pacific could lead to an infusion of moisture into the Southwest during this period. Above-normal precipitation is expected across the Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the entire mid-section of the country from the Dakotas down to southern Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation is expected to be below normal along the southeast coast from Florida up into the western Carolinas. We can expect to see colder-than-normal temperatures across most of the West and particularly along the northern tier states from the Pacific Northwest over to the Great Lakes. The best bet for warmer temperatures will be across the Gulf Coast states from Texas to Florida and up into the Carolinas as well.

Updated September 13, 2006