The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The new year started off with a second consecutive winter storm over the High Plains region of the United States.  This storm tracked almost entirely over the same region as the major storm last week, further improving drought conditions over the affected areas.  As with the last storm, snow and blowing snow coupled with icing conditions contributed to hazardous conditions over Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska and as far south as Oklahoma.  The much-needed precipitation was welcomed by most.

The Plains and Midwest:  The results of the last two winter storms have allowed for improvements to the drought status in the region.  In Nebraska, the D0 was removed from all of eastern Nebraska as well as southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa after this region received 2+ inches of precipitation in the last week, with Seward, Nebraska, recording 2.57 inches of precipitation for the week.  Soil moisture profiles are at or near capacity for much of Nebraska except for the far western portions of the state.  D1 and D2 conditions were pushed to the west in Nebraska as well in response to the above-normal precipitation.  In Kansas, D0 was reduced in the western portion of the state where up to 5 inches of precipitation were recorded.  Healy, Kansas, observed 4.70 inches of precipitation, while Leoti, Kansas, recorded 5.37 inches for the week.  In the central portion of the state, D0 and D1 were also improved.

Oklahoma has been in a relatively wet pattern over the last month.  December ended up as one of the wettest months on record for Oklahoma.  With the moisture received, statewide changes were made, with a one-category improvement in the drought depiction.  The D4 region was removed completely, with much of the region showing recovery from long-term water deficits and a positive hydrological response as well.

The Southeast and Appalachians:  Dry conditions prevailed again over the Appalachians this last week.  In response to short-term dryness over this region, the area of D0 was expanded to include eastern Kentucky and southwestern West Virginia, combining the two previous areas of D0.  Some beneficial rain returned to parts of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.  Some improvements to the D1 areas here were made, but long-term precipitation deficits dominate the region. 

The West and the Rockies:  Heavy snows in the southern Rocky Mountains allowed improvements to the drought status in both Colorado and New Mexico.  The D0 line was moved farther to the west in response to up to 50 inches of snow in the region.  Dry conditions continue to dominate southern California.  Precipitation values for 2006 were quite sparse across southern California.  Thermal, California, recorded only 0.23 inches of precipitation for 2006, which is only 7 percent of normal.  Palm Springs, California, recorded 1.78 inches of precipitation for 2006, which corresponds to 34 percent of normal.  Water year precipitation values were below 25 percent of normal for almost the entire region.  Almost every watershed in the state is below normal for the water year so far in California. 

Looking Ahead: The next 5 days (January 4-8) mild and dry conditions will dominate the Plains states.  Temperatures are expected to be above normal, ranging from +15 to 18°F in the Great Lakes region to +6 to 9°F over much of the Plains.  Rains are expected to continue along the Gulf Coast and in the Pacific Northwest, while significant precipitation is projected for New England as well. 

Updated January 4, 2007