Despite these broad areas of dryness and the recent heat wave that enveloped parts of the country, it should be noted that the nation’s major crops seem to be faring much better in early July 1999 than they did at the same time in 1998, when exceptional drought conditions covered large sections of the southern states. As of July 5, 1999, about 5% of the nation’s corn crop, 6% of soybeans, 11% of pasture and range lands, and 16% of cotton were in poor or very poor condition, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS/USDA). These numbers are only about half of the proportion in poor or very poor condition at this time last year (10% of corn, 12% of soybeans, 21% of pastures and ranges, and 34% of cotton).

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (including the upper Ohio Valley)

Subnormal precipitation dates back to at least the beginning of April across the Northeast, and despite the relatively wet week, many locations recorded 2 to locally 7 inches less rain than normal during April 1 – July 5. Specifically, Boston, MA received 4.64" for the 96-day period (normal=10.39") while New York City recorded 7.15" (normal=11.82") and Hartford, CT measured 5.70" (normal=12.24").

Long-term moisture deficits, dating back a full year, are entrenched across parts of the region, particularly the mid-Atlantic and lower Northeast. The one-year period ending June 30, 1999 was the 2^nd driest such period in 104 years for Maryland and Virginia, and the 3^rd driest in New Jersey, according to NCDC and CPC. In addition, it was one of the 10 driest since 1895/1896 for five other states (OH, WV, PA, DE, & NY). For July 1, 1998 – July 5, 1999, several sites recorded 8 to 18 inches less precipitation than normal, including Washington, DC (25.10"; normal=39.21"), Baltimore, MD (24.29"; normal=41.35"), Williamsport, PA (27.26"; normal=41.39"), Bridgeport, CT (31.24"; normal=42.27"), and Cleveland, OH (27.23"; normal=37.22").

The primary impacts from this dryness have been hydrological, although some agricultural difficulties were also noted. According to the River Forecast Centers on July 6, 47% of New England measuring sites reported river and streamflows among the lowest 25% on record, down from 84% on June 22. Farther south and west, similarly low flows were reported at 67% of mid-Atlantic sites and 43% of Ohio Valley sites. These numbers were down from 81% and 66%, respectively, on June 22, so some improvement has been observed. Other notable impacts included the widespread implementation of water conservation measures for many water supply systems, and the 15% of the Pennsylvania oat crop deemed to be in poor or very poor condition by NASS/USDA on July 6. Also, 75% of pastures in West Virginia were in poor or very poor condition, as were 60% in Virginia, 58% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Maryland. Farther north, where heavier rain fell during the last 7 days, pasture conditions improved substantially. On July 6, 57% of New York’s pastures were in poor or very poor condition, down significantly from 86% just one week earlier.

The outlook is mixed for this region over the next two weeks. The next 5 days (July 8 – 12) are expected to bring at least 0.5" of rain to the mid-Atlantic, Ohio, West Virginia, far western Pennsylvania, and the northwestern fringes of New York and New England while temperatures average generally below normal, especially in northern sections. However, less than 0.25" is anticipated during the same period through most of Pennsylvania, the southern half of New England, and southeastern New York. The CPC’s six- to ten-day outlook for July 13 – 17, calls for heavier-than-normal rains in the Ohio Valley, western New England, New York, northern New Jersey, much of Pennsylvania, and the western mid-Atlantic in conjunction with near- or above-normal temperatures. Near normal mid-July precipitation is expected elsewhere, along with a return to above-normal temperatures.

The Southeast

Despite the rains that moistened many areas, pockets of dryness remain. During February 1 – July 5, precipitation totals 2 to locally 9 inches below normal affected scattered locations, notably Greenville, SC (15.16"; normal=23.63"), Fort Myers, FL (13.96"; normal=21.13"), Macon, GA (14.12"; normal=20.81"), and Jackson, MS (15.91"; normal=24.99").

The main impact of this dryness had been agricultural, and while crops and pastures continued to suffer in some areas, most have improved. In Georgia, 32% of corn, 13% of cotton, and 18% of soybeans, and 7% of peanuts were in poor or very poor condition on July 5, down from 39%, 16%, 26%, and 10%, respectively, for the previous week, according to the Georgia Agricultural Statistics Service. In addition, only 9% of the pastures in Georgia were in poor or very poor condition, down from 27% on June 26. Farther north, 12% of the cotton in North Carolina was in poor or very poor condition. Streamflows in most locations improved markedly during the last several days of June, but have since deteriorated. In the South Atlantic/Gulf basin, 59% of all sites reported flows among the lowest 25% of the historical record on June 22, according to the River Forecast Centers. By June 29, this proportion had dropped to 24%, but on July 6 it was back up to 41%.

The outlook is for continued improvement during the next two weeks. At least another inch of rain is forecast for most locations during July 8 - 12, with more than two inches anticipated across interior eastern North Carolina, western South Carolina, and northern Georgia. For the ensuing five days, CPC’s six- to ten-day outlook calls for generally near normal temperatures (except warmer than normal in the eastern Carolinas), and for abnormally wet weather across central and western North Carolina, most of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the southern Appalachians, and the northwestern half of Florida. Near-normal mid-July rains are anticipated elsewhere.

Southern and Western Texas

Most impacts have been hydrological and confined to the Rio Grande basin, where water stores are short. Two large international reservoirs along the Rio Grande River are still about as low as during last year’s major drought. Some 30% of the state’s cotton crop was in poor or very poor condition as of July 5, according to NASS/USDA, but this was primarily due to hailstorms earlier in the growing season and was not a result of drought.

July is typically a rather dry time of year for the region, but enhanced tropical rainfall is expected over the southeastern half of the state during July 8 – 12. At least 0.5" of rain is anticipated in southern and eastern Texas, with 1"-3" expected across parts of southern Texas. For July 13 – 17, southern Texas is again expected to be wetter than normal, as are western parts of the state. Near normal totals are forecast along the upper Gulf coast and through north-central and northeastern Texas.

The Southwest

In addition to the fire threat, some of the region’s agriculture has been affected by the dryness. Rangelands particularly took a beating over the last several days. On June 28, 32% of Arizona’s range and pastures were in poor or very poor condition, according to NASS/USDA. By July 6, this proportion had risen to 71%. As a result, cattle grazing seasons have been shortened in both Arizona and New Mexico, despite significant pre-monsoonal rains in the latter state. In addition, some of the reservoirs in the Southwest are very short of stored water. A few are below 10% of average, especially in southern areas, but the major systems along the Colorado River are all near or above average, so only spotty water supply problems have resulted from the dryness.

Monsoonal thunderstorms commenced earlier than normal in many locations this year, particularly in Arizona, but rainfall from these storms was, as usual, highly variable across the region, allowing some places to get substantial drought relief while others dealt with "dry" thunderstorms and lightning strikes. Thundershower activity is expected to continue expanding northwestward in the near-term, so some drought recovery is expected. More than 0.25" of rain is forecast during July 8 – 12 in parts of southern California, most of Arizona, the northwestern half of New Mexico, Colorado, and southern sections of both Utah and Nevada. Very heavy rains of 1"-3" may fall on a large swath of northern Arizona and over parts of the Colorado Rockies and northern New Mexico. For July 13-17, significant monsoonal rainfall is again anticipated from central Arizona and Utah eastward. However, if monsoonal rains do not continue in earnest as expected, the anticipated La Nina conditions this coming autumn and winter could bring another year with winter and spring rainfall shortages.

The Northern Intermountain West

By July 5, the proportion of the winter wheat crop in poor or very poor condition reached 50% in Oregon and 22% in Washington. Furthermore, 38% of Washington’s barley crop was in poor or very poor condition, as were 32% of Washington’s and 12% of Oregon’s ranges and pastures, according to NASS/USDA.

Decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures are expected through this weekend, with a return to much-above-normal temperatures and seasonably dry weather forecast during July 13 – 17, so the outlook is not optimistic for the next couple of weeks.