Severe drought is affecting much of the northeastern United States from Virginia north to southern New England and west to Ohio and Kentucky. Drought also continues to affect several other parts of the country, including Alaska, Hawaii, and the interior Northwest. Through July 19, fires had consumed 2.2 million acres of land this year, an increase of 52% over the average of the previous 10 years to date. This increase is primarily attributable to the extensive areas of dryness that have been affecting the country.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (including the upper Ohio Valley)-Moderate rains (1" to locally 5" July 1 - 18) eased drought across parts of the central and upper Northeast, but drier weather and recent heat allowed severe drought to persist or worsen from western and northern Virginia to the lower Northeast and westward to Ohio and eastern Kentucky. During July 1 - 18, less than an inch of rain fell on most of the New York City/Long Island area, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, most of Maryland and adjacent areas, southwestern West Virginia, southern Ohio, and most of Kentucky. Many locations maintained precipitation shortages of 2 to 7 inches since April 1, with larger deficits affecting parts of southern New England, eastern Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition, the region is still contending with impacts from drought during the last half of 1998. In the mid-Atlantic region, site of the country's most severe current drought, precipitation since July 1998 was 20% to 40% below normal. The State of Maryland as a whole received almost a foot less precipitation than normal during July 1998 - June 1999, which was their driest one-year period since September 1965 - August 1966. On July 18, the National Interagency Coordination Center indicated high to very high fire danger from Virginia, West Virginia, and central Ohio northeastward through most of New York and southern New England. In addition, 54% of reporting sites noted streamflows among the lowest 10% on record for July 17 in the mid-Atlantic basin, with 13% reporting new daily record lows, according to the United States Geological Survey. Normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for the rest of the summer throughout the region, which should stabilize or improve agricultural prospects; however, water supplies and streamflows will likely stay below normal until at least late autumn, unless a tropical storm or hurricane brings heavy rain.

The Southeast-Recent heavy rains (generally 2" to 6" July 1 - 18) helped drought recovery across much of the region, and top soil moisture is adequate for most current crop needs. The situation in the region still needs monitoring, however, because of the small topsoil moisture reserve. A few weeks with little or no rain would deplete the topsoil moisture reserve, leading to renewed drought and crop stress. Patchy long-term dryness continues in areas that missed much of the recent rain, such as the central Carolinas and part of northeastern Georgia. The rest of July and August is expected to be wetter than normal.

Texas--Recent rains have eased earlier dryness across the south, but extremely low reservoir levels in the Rio Grande and the Mexican tributaries are the result of moisture deficits that go back several years, and which are not likely to go away soon. The Climate Prediction Center's latest forecasts call for enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation this winter, so water shortages could endure into next year.

The Southwest--Heavy monsoonal thundershowers dropped over an inch of rain on many locations during the past 2 weeks, significantly reducing the wildfire threat across Arizona, southeast Nevada, southern Utah, and New Mexico. Localized flash flooding was reported in some areas, including Las Vegas and Phoenix. However, these intense monsoonal rains have been short-lived and not entirely widespread, causing much of the water to run-off quickly without improving the long-term moisture budget as much as one might think. A number of locations are still experiencing significant rainfall deficits since December 1, 1998, so there could be problems with water supplies if abnormally dry weather hits the region again this winter. Unfortunately, forecasts call for below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures this fall and winter.

The Northern Intermountain West--Spring and early summer drought has hurt nonirrigated grain crops in Oregon and Washington. In addition, rainfall during the past 30 days has been under 50% of normal from northern Nevada eastward into Idaho and northern Utah and westward into northern California. This recent dryness has increased fire danger, and forecasts provide little hope of significant rains in the near future.

Alaska--Several months of patchy subnormal precipitation and recent warmth have combined to bring drought-related fire danger to the state. According to the National Interagency Coordination Center on July 19, fires had consumed 948,204 acres statewide since the year began. Thus, of the 2.2 million acres consumed across the United States this year, 43% were in Alaska. Thunderstorms during the past few days have eased dryness, but also raised the threat of lightning-induced fires. Over 500 lightning bolts struck Alaska during the 24 hours ending early July 16.

Hawaii--Subnormal rainfall dates back to at least the beginning of the year in central and western portions of the state, and most of the islands have endured substantially below-normal rainfall since October 1997, leading to water supply shortages. Honolulu received only one-third or normal rainfall for October 1997 - mid-July 1999 (21.5 months). There are no immediate prospects for significant relief.