The East, South, and Midwest: A very quiet week abruptly changed with the emergence of a strong cold front out of Canada and the landfall of Hurricane Irene over the weekend bringing heavy rains and flooding to Florida and the Carolinas.

Unfortunately, much needed moisture from Irene did not materialize for the areas needing it most both in the Southeast and in the Ohio River Valley as it tracked northeast and back into the Atlantic by Monday. Moderate rains were welcomed into south and central Texas but the benefits of this rain may be limited given the warm temperatures that ranged from 3 to 9 (F) above normal across most of the state for the week ending October 16th.

Outlook: Although colder air will cover most of the country during the next few days, a relatively warm and dry pattern should return across most of the U.S. through the end of the month. Very little rainfall is expected in the next 10 days across most of the southern half of the country including parts of the East and Midwest. As a result, the drought affected areas in GA (D2) and in the Ohio River Valley (D2) will not see much relief.

The West: Most of the region experienced little or no rainfall in the last week. This was coupled with above normal temperatures except in the Pacific NW. The severe drought area extending from SE Washington to E Oregon (D2) remains entrenched. Short-term dryness and fire threats remained high across most of California and Nevada.

Outlook: Above normal temperatures should be accompanied by little or no precipitation through October 30^th except for coastal Washington and Oregon which may see above normal precipitation. The threat of wildfires will remain high throughout most of California, western Nevada and southern parts of Oregon and Idaho.

Non-contiguous U.S.: Conditions have improved somewhat in Hawaii although agricultural producers continue to see lingering impacts associated with long-term drought conditions. There are no significant dryness problems in Alaska, Guam, or Puerto Rico.

Outlook: In Hawaii, gradual improvement is expected during the remainder of the year as seasonal rains increase, however there are no clear indicators that would point to the moderate La Niña event significantly improving the situation there anytime soon.