Research in 2006

The National Drought Mitigation Center takes an interdisciplinary approach to reducing societal vulnerability to drought. We focus on improving ways to monitor drought, assess impacts, and reduce vulnerability through drought planning. We typically work in partnership with other academic departments and institutions, federal agencies, and stakeholders.

Current projects include:

VegDRI and VegOUT
A joint collaboration effort by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), and the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is underway to develop and deliver timely geographic information on drought at a 1-km resolution. The biweekly maps show an experimental drought indicator, the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), developed to provide regional and sub-county scale information of drought effects on vegetation. VegDRI is calculated using data mining techniques that integrate complex information from satellite measurements, climate-based drought indices, land cover types, soil characteristics, and additional environmental factors. These VegDRI maps deliver continuous spatial coverage, and have inherently finer spatial detail than other commonly available drought indicators such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. Future development of the VegDRI product is planned to monitor drought over the lower 48 states using these techniques. More information and maps can be found at http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/Drought_Monitoring/. VegOUT will eventually build on VegDRI, incorporating data such as Pacific Ocean temperatures to produce two-, four-, and six-week outlooks for vegetation conditions.
NDMC contributors: Brian Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda, Mike Hayes, Cody Knutson, Jun Li, Meghan Sittler and Kelly Helm Smith
External collaborators: Jesslyn Brown, U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, S.D.; Aashish Shrestha, UNL Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing; Dr. Sherri Harms, University of Nebraska-Kearney Computer Science & Information Systems; Bill Sorensen, High Plains Regional Climate Center; Dr. Greg Husak, University of California, Santa Barbara Department of Geography
Sponsor: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency
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Drought Impact Reporter
The Drought Impact Reporter is an interactive tool developed by the NDMC to collect, quantify, and map reported drought impacts for the United States. It was created in response to the need for a national drought impact database. A risk management approach to drought management, which strongly emphasizes improved monitoring and preparedness, requires timely information on the severity and spatial extent of drought and its associated impacts. The information provided by the Drought Impact Reporter will help U.S. policy makers and resource managers identify what types of impacts are occurring and where. Information for the impact report database comes from a variety of sources, including on-line drought-related news stories and scientific publications, reviewed by NDMC staff; members of the public who visit the website and submit a drought-related impact; members of the media; and members of government agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
NDMC contributors: Mike Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Cody Knutson, Meghan Sittler, Melissa Melvin, Kelly Helm Smith, Deborah Wood, and Brian Fuchs, as well as temporary helpers.
External collaborators: Dr. Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS, University of Arizona; Ian Cottingham, UNL’s Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing; Marcus Tooze and Andy Rutledge of GIS Workshop
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA
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Economic Impacts of Drought
Although drought’s impacts have been estimated at $6-8 billion per year and at $39 billion in 1988, the scientific and policy communities lack consistent methodologies to quantify the impacts of drought, especially across sectors, and at local, regional and national scales. We are working to develop modeling strategies for estimating direct losses from droughts, and to identify strategies for incorporating indirect loss estimations into modeling strategies. Finally, a guide for farmers and ranchers will help them incorporate our findings into their decision-making.
NDMC contributors: Mike Hayes and Ya Ding
External contributors: Dr. Roger Pulwarty, NOAA’s Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder, Colorado; Dr. Chuck Howe, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado-Boulder; Dr. Ray Supalla, UNL Department of Economics; Dr. Karina Schoengold, UNL School of Natural Resources, Ag Economics and Water Center; Dr. Janie Chermak, University of New Mexico Economics; and Prabhakar Shrestha, UNL grad student, School of Natural Resources.
Sponsors: USDA’s RMA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Drought Monitor Decision Support System
The Drought Monitor-Decision Support System (DM-DSS) will provide a more interactive version of the Drought Monitor. We are working to incorporate enhancements in spatial and temporal resolution of various indicators to allow for more specialized or local planning. The DM-DSS will ideally allow users to drill down to the local level to assess drought, and will foster a continual process of user feedback, evaluation, and assessment, especially among farmers and ranchers.
NDMC contributors: Mark Svoboda, Mike Hayes, Soren Scott, Brian Fuchs, Cody Knutson, Meghan Sittler, and Kelly Helm Smith.
External collaborators: Ian Cottingham and Xueming Wu, both from UNL’s Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA
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Incorporating NASA Satellite Data into the Drought Monitor
The NDMC will work with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to see whether NASA’s satellite data can be used to enhance the Drought Monitor’s performance in reflecting drought conditions across the United States.
NDMC contributors: Don Wilhite, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow and Tsegaye Tadesse.
Sponsor: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

The Drought Risk Atlas
The Drought Risk Atlas will provide users with a comprehensive, site-specific assessment of the history, frequency, intensity, duration, and patterns of drought in the past century. Understanding the history of drought in a given area can help producers make better management decisions. The Drought Atlas will be available as a web-based decision-support tool.
NDMC contributors: Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Jae Ryu, Mike Hayes, Cody Knutson, Meghan Sittler, Kelly Helm Smith; Jeff Nothwehr and Sandra Jones, NDMC grad students
External Contributor: Ian Cottingham, UNL’s Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA
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Drought Planning Tool for Ranchers
The NDMC is developing a model drought planning process and web-based educational delivery system for forage and rangeland producers. Working with Cooperative Extension, livestock and forage production consultants, and individual ranchers, the NDMC will identify essential planning components and develop a generic drought planning process that can serve as a template for producers.
NDMC contributors: Cody Knutson, Mike Hayes, Meghan Sittler, Kelly Helm Smith, Ryan Bjerke, NDMC graduate student
External collaborators: Dr. Pat Reece, UNL’s Panhandle Research & Extension Center; Dr. Matt Stockton, UNL’s West Central Research & Extension Center; Dr. Dick Clark, UNL Department of Agricultural Economics (retired); Dr. Terry Klopfenstein, UNL Animal Science (retired); Dr. Lowell Moser, UNL Agronomy & Horticulture (retired); Dr. Sandy Smart, South Dakota State University Range Science; Dr. Roger Gates, SDSU West River Ag Center; Dr. Barry Dunn, Texas A&M, King Ranch Institute for Ranch Management; Dr. Jerry Volesky, UNL’s West Central Research & Extension Center; Ben Kutsch, UNL LARC
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA
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Project GreenLeaf
The GreenLeaf Project, a cooperative development between the USDA Risk Management Agency, the National Drought Mitigation Center and the UNL Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing, is being developed to apply leading distributed computing research techniques with proven climatic and agronomic research to provide farmers and ranchers with real-time, sub-county resolution, risk assessment and decision support tools which can be utilized with the ease of use associated with common internet search engines.
NDMC contributors: Mike Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Cody Knutson, Brian Wardlow, Meghan Sittler, Kelly Helm Smith
External collaborators: Ian Cottingham, Jon Kokulil, and Xueming Wu from UNL’s Laboratory for Advanced Research Computing
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA
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Enhancing the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
The NDMC is collaborating with the National Weather Service on pilot projects to enhance the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). Currently, the AHPS system provides river flow/stage and forecast information at more than 3,600 forecasts points across the United States. Along with this information, AHPS also describes potential flood impacts that may occur near each forecast point. In order expand the system to include low-flow information, pilot studies are being conducted in Minnesota’s Mississippi River Basin; the North Platte River Basin of Nebraska, Wyoming, and Colorado; the Upper Missouri River Basin in Montana and Wyoming; the Trinity River Basin in Texas; and the Red River Basin along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota. As part of this effort, the NDMC is identifying potential impacts of low river flows within the study areas through surveys of relevant local, state, and federal water administrators. Providing river flow and potential impact information allows communities, states, and federal interests to better understand their vulnerabilities and make more informed decisions when preparing for and responding to potentially hazardous situations.
NDMC contributors: Cody Knutson, Mark Svoboda, Meghan Sittler, and Sandra Jones, NDMC graduate student
External collaborators: Doug Kluck, NWS Central Region Headquarters; Ben Weiger, NWS Southern Region Headquarters
Sponsor: National Weather Service

Mitigating the Economic Risk of Stock Reduction During Drought
Overgrazing is a common problem that not only affects rangelands during drought but also makes it harder for range conditions to improve following drought. Therefore, we are collaborating in the development of a grazing management computer program called "The Grazing Manager." The software will help ranchers across the western United States match grass production with appropriate cattle stocking rates during drought. Final software release is expected in March 2007.
NDMC contributors: Cody Knutson and Mike Hayes
External collaborators: Tom Buman of Agren, Inc.; Paul Mitchell of Texas A&M; and Jerry Hatfield of the USDA Agricultural Research Service
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA

A Real-Time Ground Water Monitoring Network for Nebraska
The project partners are developing a near real-time ground water monitoring network for Nebraska. Sensors will be designed to record and analyze ground water levels at more than 50 monitoring stations across Nebraska. This information will be transmitted through a wireless telecommunication system on a daily basis and be made available to the public through a web-based user interface. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop a relatively low-cost monitoring system that will provide near real-time ground water information to drought planners and other environmental stakeholders across Nebraska.
NDMC contributor: Cody Knutson
External collaborators: Mark Burbach, UNL’s School of Natural Resources; and Byrav Ramamurthy, UNL Computer Science and Engineering
Sponsor: USDA’s RMA

Drought Perception on the Great Plains and Related Sociological Impacts
Drought continues to be the most expensive natural disaster in the United States, with the lion’s share of financial losses shouldered by agricultural and livestock producers.  These producers’ perceptions of and responses to drought have been studied over several decades.  This study again looks at these perceptions and responses.  The following two studies provide a baseline: In 1966, Thomas Saarinen interviewed Great Plains wheat farmers to determine their perception of and response to drought; and in 1985, Jonathan Taylor, Thomas Stewart, and Mary Downton conducted a study to substantiate and expand on Saarinen’s work.  Saarinen found that producers had no long-term plan for management during drought.  Taylor, et al., found much the same thing.  Producers in Frontier County, Nebraska were targeted in both the Saarinen and Taylor studies; the current study once again focuses on Frontier County producers, providing a valuable longitudinal look at perception and response, particularly in light of technological advances over the last forty years.  Agri-business and related financial markets are not the only sectors impacted by drought.  Businesses, communities and individuals also experience many direct and indirect impacts. Some of those impacts have not been well researched and are being considered in this study.  The study’s focus is thus twofold: 1) to gain a better understanding of how the perception of and response to drought has changed over time; and 2) to research additional impacts of drought, particularly social impacts.  Preliminary findings are very intriguing, particularly the community-related impacts, which are being exacerbated by ongoing drought in the region.
NDMC contributors: Donna Woudenberg, grad student, Don Wilhite, advisor
Sponsor: Center for Great Plains Studies, NDMC

Soil Moisture Research Project
Soil moisture is an integral part of the hydrologic cycle and is an important method for establishing the severity of drought. Unfortunately most locations in the United States rely solely on model output for determination of soil moisture status. In Nebraska, we are privileged to have daily soil water content measurements at sites in the Automated Weather Data Network (AWDN). Fourteen of these locations have reliable soil moisture data dating back to the late 1990’s and these data are the focal point of our soil moisture research. Since the first year(s) of soil moisture implementation in the AWDN Network, the entire state of Nebraska has experienced long periods of precipitation deficits and corresponding drought impacts. The main goal of this project is to use archived soil moisture data as a method to determine the severity and duration of drought and see how it holds up compared with other drought indices.
NDMC contributor: Eric Hunt, grad student, Don Wilhite
External collaborators: Dr. Ken Hubbard, Sebastien Korner and Bill
Sorensen, High Plains Regional Climate Center
Sponsors: HPRCC and NDMC