Understanding Your Risk and Impacts

 Impacts of Drought

Drought produces a complex web of impacts that spans many sectors of the economy and reaches well beyond the area experiencing physical drought. This complexity exists because water is integral to our ability to produce goods and provide services.

Impacts are commonly referred to as direct or indirect. Reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat are a few examples of direct impacts. The consequences of these impacts illustrate indirect impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues because of reduced expenditures, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. Direct or primary impacts are usually biophysical. Conceptually speaking, the more removed the impact from the cause, the more complex the link to the cause. In fact, the web of impacts becomes so diffuse that it is very difficult to come up with financial estimates of damages. The impacts of drought can be categorized as economic, environmental, or social.

Not all impacts of drought are negative. Some agricultural producers outside the drought area or with surpluses benefit from higher prices, as do businesses that provide water-related services or alternatives to water-dependent services; these types of businesses were among the “winners” in the 1987–89 U.S. drought.

Many economic impacts occur in agriculture and related sectors, including forestry and fisheries, because of the reliance of these sectors on surface and subsurface water supplies. In addition to obvious losses in yields in both crop and livestock production, drought is associated with increases in insect infestations, plant disease, and wind erosion. Droughts also bring increased problems with insects and diseases to forests and reduce growth. The incidence of forest and range fires increases substantially during extended droughts, which in turn places both human and wildlife populations at higher levels of risk.

Income loss is another indicator used in assessing the impacts of drought because so many sectors are affected. Reduced income for farmers has a ripple effect. Retailers and others who provide goods and services to farmers face reduced business. This leads to unemployment, increased credit risk for financial institutions, capital shortfalls, and loss of tax revenue for local, state, and federal government. Less discretionary income affects the recreation and tourism industries. Prices for food, energy, and other products increase as supplies are reduced. In some cases, local shortages of certain goods result in the need to import these goods from outside the stricken region. Reduced water supply impairs the navigability of rivers and results in increased transportation costs because products must be transported by rail or truck. Hydropower production may also be curtailed significantly.

Environmental losses are the result of damages to plant and animal species, wildlife habitat, and air and water quality; forest and range fires; degradation of landscape quality; loss of biodiversity; and soil erosion. Some of the effects are short-term and conditions quickly return to normal following the end of the drought. Other environmental effects linger for some time or may even become permanent. Wildlife habitat, for example, may be degraded through the loss of wetlands, lakes, and vegetation. However, many species will eventually recover from this temporary aberration. The degradation of landscape quality, including increased soil erosion, may lead to a more permanent loss of biological productivity of the landscape. Although environmental losses are difficult to quantify, growing public awareness and concern for environmental quality has forced public officials to focus greater attention and resources on these effects.

Social impacts mainly involve public safety, health, conflicts between water users, reduced quality of life, and inequities in the distribution of impacts and disaster relief. Many of the impacts specified as economic and environmental have social components as well. Population out-migration is a significant problem in many countries, often stimulated by greater availability of food and water elsewhere. Migration is usually to urban areas within the stressed area or to regions outside the drought area; migration may even be to adjacent countries, creating refugee problems. However, when the drought has abated, these persons seldom return home, depriving rural areas of valuable human resources necessary for economic development. For the urban area to which they have immigrated, they place ever-increasing pressure on the social infrastructure, possibly leading to greater poverty and social unrest. The drought-prone northeast region of Brazil had a net loss of nearly 5.5 million people between 1950 and 1980. Although not all of this population shift was directly attributable to drought, it was a primary factor for many in their decision to relocate. This continues to be a significant problem in Brazil and many other drought-prone countries.

Drought represents one of the most important natural triggers for malnutrition and famine, a significant and widespread problem in many parts of Africa and in other countries as well. Deaths resulting from famine are sometimes mistakenly attributed to drought rather than to underlying causes such as war or civil strife. Numerous early warning systems have been established in Africa to monitor a wide range of physical and social variables that signal a trend toward food insecurity. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), for example, monitors the crop and food situation in the region and issues alerts during periods of impending crisis.

Economic Impacts
Environmental Impacts
Social Impacts