Scenario Planning

One way to address drought’s complexity and planning challenges is through the use of scenarios. A scenario is a plausible event or sequence of events that provide the backdrop for exercises such as training activities or planning discussions.  Scenarios allow participants to react and plan for a plausible event so you will be better prepared to deal with what actually happens. Scenarios can be written as a story or enhanced with timelines and maps.  Whether it’s used for training or planning purposes, a scenario should be plausible and challenging.

Elements of Effective Scenarios

Click on a puzzle piece to see one way that elements factored into a
scenario used in the North Platte River Basin Drought THIRA
Meet specific needs of the participating communities
Capture attention with a narrative 
Provide details that show conditions or support decision-making
Encourage thoughtful discussion with events that challenge participants

 

Scenario-based exercises can help your community’s drought preparedness activities by encouraging planners, decision-makers, agency staff, and citizens to think about how a drought may unfold and what actions they could take before it happens in order to lessen its impacts or cope with its effects.

 

Mitigation and Response Actions

Being prepared for drought means having mitigation and response strategies in place. Mitigation actions provide your community with the steps to take ahead of time to reduce the next drought’s effects. Response actions allow your community to better cope with drought once it strikes. Scenario-based exercises help identify the relevant actions for your community.

 

Mitigation Examples

 

Response Examples

open book Educate community members about water conservation message bubbles Communicate key messages and information to the community
water spicket draining water Increase water supply with water harvesting, locating new sources, or building storage hands holding a drop of water Implement voluntary or mandatory water conservation measures
wheat crops Plant drought-resistant species and varieties to improve crop yields during drought dollar sign over water drops Apply emergency pricing to encourage water conservation
cat tails Incorporate land-use practices that preserve watersheds call center person with headphones and mic Activate hay hotlines to connect producers with hay to sell or pasture to rent
solar panels and wind farms Reduce dependencies on single resource and economic sectors sunlight shining down on shade shelter structure Monitor temperatures and open cooling shelters during periods of excessive heat
handshake	Creating mutual aid agreements with other communities to help meet response needs ticket voucher Offer vouchers for mental health service for those affected by the drought

 

No matter where you are in the drought planning process, scenario-based exercises can make a contribution. They can be used to kick off your community’s drought planning efforts or to help revise an existing plan.

 

Drought Planning Process
Where do I start? 
No matter where you are in the drought planning process, scenario-based exercises can make a contribution. They can be used to kick off your community’s drought planning efforts or to help revise an existing plan. Click the icons below to find out. 
Scope, scale, and leadership
Start by building a leadership team that includes people who build community-wide involvement, coordinate plan development, and implement the plan in times of drought. The team will identify the developing plan’s purpose, objectives, and geographic or political boundaries. 

Exercise contribution
Scenario-based exercises can be used to practice implementing your plan during times of drought, helping to clarify who does what and when during a drought.
Engagement process
Involving the community can help you better understand the different ways that people think about drought and how it affects them.
Exercise contribution
Scenario-based exercises offer a way to include a wide range of people in the planning process and create opportunities for public education, collaboration, and conflict resolution.
Exercise contribution

Scenario-based exercises can be used to help you determine what indicators (e.g., rainfall, streamflow, vegetation conditions, reservoir levels, etc.) are relevant to your community.

Exercise contribution

Scenario-based exercises can be used to help identify resources and groups at risk during drought.

Information gathering
Gathering information helps create a picture of past conditions and provides a foundation for developing a community-tailored plan.
Monitoring and early warning
Monitoring climate and water resources helps you recognize drought, alert the community to developing conditions, and trigger response to help avoid a crisis. 
Mitigation and response actions
Mitigation can help your community lessen a drought’s impacts before it arrives and developing response actions can help your community cope once a drought is taking place. 
Exercise contribution

Scenario-based exercises can be used to help develop specific components of a plan.

Exercise contribution

Scenario-based exercises can be used to identify strategies and explore their consequences.

Writing the plan
Putting the pieces together into a formal document allows people to see what can be expected during a drought event, eliminating uncertainty.
Exercise contribution

Scenario-based exercises can be used to test plan procedures before a drought to help you identify its strengths and weakness.

Plan evaluation and modification
After a drought, it’s important to ask, “How well did our plan work?” Updating your plan with lessons learned from past droughts helps keep it responsive to changing community needs and priorities. 

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